Issue 2: Three Lessons From A 2019 Redraft
"Ask me in five years."
Below is a button where you can subscribe to the newsletter if you haven’t already done so. It’s free! Thanks for reading and I hope you enjoy:
A huge thank you to everyone who has already subscribed to the newsletter. I’ve been excited about writing this thing all week and hopefully it’s an added piece of value in your inbox. I’m still not sure which day is best to send, but I am leaning towards either Saturday, Sunday or Monday. If you have any feedback on this end (or newsletter name suggestions) let me know. Let’s get right into it:
I’ve always wanted to do a “redraft” at Baseball America.
One of the biggest challenges in covering MLB’s draft is the timeline between the draft taking place and when you can actually look back and see whose picks are good, whose are bad and where the rankings might have been a bit wonky in hindsight.
This is part of the reason why we don’t grade drafts in the moment. It feels inauthentic and arrogant to slap a grade on a draft class when in reality we won’t know who did well and who did poorly for another half-decade or so at least. In fact, this is exactly what a scouting director for a team told me during one of my first years at Baseball America when I asked him what he thought about his draft just a few days after the fact:
“Ask me in five years.”
Over the holidays I was finally able to give a redraft the old college try. Since it’s been four and a half years since the 2019 draft, I figured I would start there and wound up with far too many words on a draft class that has turned out to be far better than we expected at the time—and a seismic shift for the Orioles as an organization. You can see the full piece here, but in today’s newsletter I wanted to go over a few of the lessons I learned from the process.
The perception of a draft class on draft day is nothing more than that
I think a good rule of thumb in general is to not be overly confident. That seems especially true with baseball prospects and it feels even more obvious with amateur players who have a much longer developmental timeline (and significantly noisier and less reliable performance data) than their affiliated professional peers.
At the time of the 2019 draft, my feeling of the class based on a year of covering the group and talking to scouts throughout the industry was this: the top six players were quite good, but beyond that the class suffered from a lack of depth in general, and in particular one of the worst groups of college pitching prospects they had seen in years—potentially ever.
We have not reached the five-year anniversary of the draft yet and that overview is significantly off base. Yes, the top group of players still looks quite good, but the 2019 class overall seems to be one of the more impressive drafts in recent years thanks to impact position players like Corbin Carroll, Gunnar Henderson, Michael Harris, Anthony Volpe being significantly better than expected at the time, and other later-round names like Edouard Julien, Spencer Steer, Vinnie Pasquantino, Joey Ortiz and Vaughn Grissom showing off the depth that actually did exist with the group
The college pitching of the class has also been much better than expected. Even if Alek Manoah never returns to form, his 2022 season alone (31 starts, 196.2 innings, 2.24 ERA, third in AL Cy Young voting) would be enough to lift the reputation of the class, but both Nick Lodolo and especially George Kirby look like reliable starters moving forward—and that’s without mentioning others like Graham Ashcraft, Ryan Pepiot, Hunter Brown and Louie Varland.
As we head into another draft cycle with a group that is getting some criticism, I think it’s worth remembering we truly don’t know how good a draft class is until we give everyone a few years in pro ball.
First round first basemen are sort of terrifying
If you know me you know I like shortstops. Particularly the high school version where you will almost always find the most tooled up and athletic players in a given draft class. It’s a glamor position for a reason.
First base is… significantly less exciting.
The path to being an impact player as a first baseman in the majors requires a much higher offensive baseline and instead of competing with young players for playing time, first basemen are generally competing with older veterans whose bats are unquestioned and proven but who have been moved down the defensive spectrum. If you’re already a first baseman entering pro ball, you typically don’t have much flexibility in moving elsewhere on the defensive spectrum.
Because of those questions, the industry has to have supreme confidence in the offensive profile of a first baseman to warrant a first round pick.
In the 2019 class, California first baseman Andrew Vaughn had proven his offensive chops beyond any reasonable doubt and ranked as the No. 3 player in the class, behind consensus top player Adley Rutschman and prep toolshed Bobby Witt Jr. This was our scouting report at the time. It’s glowing:
Vaughn put up one of the best offensive seasons in Cal history in 2018, hitting .402/.531/.819 with 23 home runs (tying a single-season school record previously set by Xavier Nady in 1999) to win the 2018 Golden Spikes Award. That campaign proved Vaughn had arguably the best combination of hit and power tools of any prospect in the 2019 draft class. And while Vaughn had a quiet summer with USA Baseball’s Collegiate National Team in 2018, hitting just .224/.316/.367 in 10 games, he still has an excellent wood bat track record, as evidenced by his .308/.368/.654 slash line in the Cape Cod League last summer.
Vaughn has an idyllic righthanded swing with the requisite bat speed and strength needed to allow scouts to peg him as a plus hitter with 80-grade raw power. He takes a professional approach to batting practice and works the ball to all fields before games, rather than simply pulling the ball and trying to hit home runs as often as possible. In games, however, Vaughn has no issues going over the fence to the right-center field gap or turning on pitches inside with easy impact. In addition to his feel for the barrel and ability to hit with authority, Vaughn has an uncanny understanding of the strike zone. His batting eye rivals any player in the country, and as a sophomore he walked 44 times compared to just 18 strikeouts. He has continued to walk at an impressive rate in 2019, and he’s still walking more than he’s striking out, although his strikeout rate is up as well. Still, Vaughn’s advanced feel to hit, power and plate discipline should allow him to become an impact hitter in the middle of a major league lineup, while also allowing him to rise through the minors quickly.
Standing at 6 feet, 214 pounds and being a righthanded hitter and thrower, Vaughn doesn’t have the typical profile of a top-five pick. In fact, only four right-right first baseman under 6 feet tall have played more than 20 games in the majors since the integration era began in 1947. In spite of that, Vaughn’s bat is special enough to give him a chance to become the highest-drafted college first baseman since 1996, when the Twins took San Diego State first baseman Travis Lee with the No. 2 overall pick. Teams might be critical of Vaughn’s defense because he is undersized for the position, but he moves well and has solid hands. While he’s unlikely to ever be a Gold Glove defender, he should be more than capable of handling the position and making all the routine plays.
Vaughn did push to the majors quickly and of the 2019 class he leads the field with 413 games played, but in his three-year career he’s essentially been a league-average hitter with a 102 OPS+ and 103 wRC+. Because he was a dreadful defender in a corner outfield spot in his first two seasons before being moved to a full-time first base role in 2023, Vaughn has produced -0.6 fWAR and 0.9 bWAR so far in his career.
That’s not the sort of impact the White Sox were hoping to get when they made him the third overall pick. I’m not entirely out on Vaughn moving forward. He has improved his home run production marginally in each season (15, 17, 21) and in 2023 he managed his first positive single-season fWAR year (0.3), but I do think he shows exactly why first basemen can be so scary in the draft.
It’s not just Vaughn. Check out the track record of first round first baseman in the bonus pool era (2012-present). It’s not a list that inspires confidence:
2013: Dominic Smith, Mets, 11th overall (HS, 1.1 bWAR)
2014: Casey Gillaspie, Rays, 20th overall (4YR, didn’t make the majors)
2015: Josh Naylor, Marlins, 12th overall (HS, 4.5 bWAR)
2015: Chris Shaw, Giants, 31st overall (4YR, -0.9 bWAR)
2017: Brendan McKay, Rays, 4th overall (4YR, -0.1 bWAR)
2017: Pavin Smith, D-backs, 7th overall (4YR, -1.5 bWAR)
2017: Nick Pratto, Royals, 14th overall (HS, -1.5 bWAR)
2017: Evan White, Mariners, 17th overall (4YR, -0.6 bWAR)
2019: Andrew Vaughn, White Sox, 3rd overall (4YR, 0.9 bWAR)
2019: Michael Toglia, Rockies, 23rd overall (4YR, -1.6 bWAR)
2020: Spencer Torkelson*, Tigers, 1st overall (4YR, -0.4 bWAR)
2020: Aaron Sabato, Twins, 27th overall (4YR, has not made majors)
2022: Jacob Berry*, Marlins, 6th overall (4YR, .236/.300/.382 hitter in 144 MiLB games)
2022: Xavier Isaac, Rays, 29th overall (HS, .282/.390/.513 hitter in 107 MiLB games)
2023: Nolan Schanuel, Angels, 11th overall (4YR, 0.1 bWAR)
The jury is still out on some of the more recent selections here, but that’s a fairly dire group of draft picks in my opinion. Why not just wait until the second round for your first baseman? That’s where Matt Olson and Pete Alonso went after all.
At least we don’t have a first baseman sitting in the top spot for the 2024 class… right? Right???
*Both Torkelson and Berry were drafted as third baseman, but I am counting them as first baseman here because that’s where they primarily played in college, that’s where they profiled for scouts and that’s where I expect them to play moving forward. Berry has played much more third base than I ever would have expected in the minors though.
Don’t turn off the draft after day one
This one feels obvious for a diehard draftnik like myself, and I assume it will probably be the case for most of you who decided to read this newsletter as well, but it’s worth mentioning that 14 of the 32 players I had going in the first round in this 2019 redraft were originally taken after the first round.
That number isn’t shocking when you consider the huge volume of lottery tickets that were picked up in the 39 rounds that followed. Some of those guys are going to hit, right? The Twins sure did a nice job of it.
It’s a lot easier to start finding more flaws with players as we get into days two and three of the draft, but it’s just worth remembering that development for players can happen at plenty of different stages and our evaluations are far from perfect.
Sure, the draft can be a slog once we get beyond the third round or so, but there’s still plenty of big league talent to be found.
In Joe Posnanski’s Friday newsletter he looked into the Braves’ extension of Chris Sale and the unique financial situation of the team. It’s worth reading in its entirety if you want a good breakdown of the current state of the Braves and their postseason strategy (as is JJ Cooper’s similar conclusion at Baseball America).
What I was struck by were a few paragraphs he wrote about how we view the regular season and the postseason. Emphasis is mine:
I can’t predict the future—but would it surprise me if teams started using their aces once a week, 22 starts a year, in order to protect them for October? Of course not. Would it surprise me if teams started resting their star players 25 or 35 or more games a year to keep them fresh for October? Of course not. Would it surprise me if teams played for 92 wins instead of 100 or 105 or 110, because 92 wins is enough to get you in the playoffs and that’s all that matters anymore?
Of course not.
This is where the game has been going for a while now, sure, but it’s there now. I, personally, am not a huge fan of it—I’ve long been more of a regular-season guy than a playoff guy—but as I’ve written before, I just love baseball, so I’ll go wherever the game takes me. And the game is taking you and me into a new era, I think, one where soon enough 16 teams will make the playoffs, and the regular season will be mostly for entertainment purposes, and there won’t be very many important games played between April and September.
I find myself in Joe’s camp here, personally. I am a regular season baseball guy through and through, and I wish we had a better way of placing some value or respect on regular season success. It’s just so much harder to do than get into an increasingly large postseason field and get hot at the right time.
Obviously winning the World Series is important, and it’s the ultimate goal of any team, but it’s just odd to me that people do believe the 2021 Braves season is more impressive than the 2023 season they just completed. In my mind, the Dodgers have clearly been the best organization in baseball for the past decade plus, but there are plenty of people who would look at their lack of World Series championships and general postseason resume and scoff at that claim.
It’s probably a losing battle, but I’m going to stick to my guns on this one. Here’s to celebrating the regular season champs!
In some non-baseball talk, I wanted to mention how close we came to disaster a few days ago. The Daily Tar Heel—UNC’s student newspaper, where I learned more about sports writing than any journalism class—had news earlier this week that Linda’s Bar and Grill was permanently closing on Friday, Jan. 5:
This was devastating to hear and it threw about three different UNC alumn-based group chats I’m in into chaos and despair. It’s a favorite Chapel Hill bar of many, including yours truly, and has always been a frequent hangout for DTH staffers after hitting print deadlines for the paper.
Their loaded tots and cheese fries are the stuff of legend, and I’m sure if I’ve talked to someone about visiting Chapel Hill it’s one of the first places I would have recommended they check out. It’s such a special place it’s actually the first stop my wife and I made after we got engaged in Chapel Hill a few years ago—tequila and cheese fries to celebrate, what could be better?
So it was obviously a shame to hear the place would close down. Franklin Street isn’t exactly a haven for business that want to actually stay in business for more than a few years. The entire strip now looks significantly different today than it did when I was going to school there. A number of friends actually started making a list of all the restaurants and bars that have come and gone in the last seven years and it was quite a bit longer than expected. But I did believe that Linda’s was one of the exceptions. A real institution of the place, if you will, and one that was more resistant to the seasonal ups and downs of a college town.
As locals flocked to Linda’s last week for a last hurrah I was sitting in Northern Virginia wishing I could join them but resigned to the fact that I had already been to the place for the final time without even knowing it. But only a few days after first shocking us with the news the DTH came back with more that offered a glimmer of hope. Linda’s might not be permanently gone after all. The bar’s original owners, who still own the building, are now working to find a new owner to keep the place open for good.
So, maybe Linda’s really is an exception to the rule. I truly hope so. Ask me again in five years.
Here’s everything I produced for Baseball America last week:
Writing
Nothing new on the writing front for me this week. It was largely a week of meetings and planning for the year ahead. I’m excited for what’s coming though and am currently working on a few data-driven analysis pieces on the 2024 draft class, putting together my personal top 150 list for minor league prospects and working on the next 2024 draft ranking update, as well as trying to lock in some early-season college travel plans.
Podcasting
Lessons From The 2019 Draft And Looking Ahead To 2024 — If you found the redraft talk in today’s newsletter interesting you might find this podcast interesting as well. This has the benefit of also having the voice of Peter Flaherty, who provides some excellent insight into both the 2019 retrospective and the upcoming 2024 college class.
Future Projection Episode 73: The State Of AL West Farm Systems — Ben and I got back on the podcast for the first time in 2024 to chat about some international prospects to know and wrap up our farm system series. We are now the fourth year of the Future Projection Podcast!
Here are a few other stories you might find interesting:
Ben Badler’s annual International Prospect Big Board — There’s not a better resource to get up to speed on the 2024 international prospect class than this. Ben basically created international prospect coverage and Jan. 15 is coming up quickly.
45 Things To Know 45 Days Before College Baseball Opening Day — January is still a slow month if you only care about the bigs, but for us draft fans, it’s the month to start getting excited about college baseball. Teddy Cahill has a number of things to know as we get closer to the season kicking off.
How Much Would Paul Skenes Earn As A Free Agent — JJ Cooper explores what Paul Skenes would make if he weren’t subjected to the financial restrictions of the draft system. This comes after Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s historic, 12-year, $325 million contract and some comparisons that were made between Yamamoto and Skenes—who is the best amateur pitching prospect I’ve seen since I started doing this back in 2017. I know everyone’s team Yamamoto, and for good reason, but I don’t think it’s as crazy as Twitter seems to think to prefer Skenes…