Liam Doyle Likes To Throw Fastballs

"One of the most extreme single-pitch profiles we've seen"

We've just put the finishing touches on our first in-season draft ranking update for the 2025 class. You should expect that new list to be live on the site at some point in the coming week.

After doing these draft rankings for nine years¹ now, I think this specific update is the most challenging.

The preseason ranking is more straightforward because we're largely dealing with static versions of the players and we've had months to look at the same video, data, etc. The final updates of the calendar provide a lot more time to gather information and larger samples of playing time to sort through.

The March update and expansion from 200 players to 300 players needs to account for a ton of moving pieces up and down the board: Hitters coming out with different physicalities and perhaps louder tools; new setups or approaches at the plate that change how we think about an offensive profile; players sliding to new positions; pitchers adding velocity or changing pitch mixes or showing better command; injuries; and the fact that the early-season college numbers can be extremely noisy given the huge disparities in talent during non-conference schedules.

Some high school players have been playing for a month or more. Others haven't gotten started. It's a lot to piece together on top of nailing down the 100 additional players who are added to the list. But it remains a fun challenge each year. This 2025 class is so deep that it has felt easier than normal to build the list out with confidence.

That work has largely been the reason I've not written a newsletter since February 21. I hope you'll forgive me.

One of the most fascinating players in this year's class is Tennessee lefthander Liam Doyle, who is a big riser on this next update. I'll be writing more about him in the near future at Baseball America, but take a quick look at how his primary pitch usage stands out compared to recent first round college pitchers in their draft year:

• 2025 — Liam Doyle, LHP, Tennessee: 71%

• 2023 — Paul Skenes, RHP, LSU: 66%

• 2023 — Chase Dollander, RHP, Tennessee: 65%

• 2021 — Gavin Williams, RHP, East Carolina: 65%

• 2021 — Will Bednar, RHP, Mississippi State: 64%

• 2022 — Cooper Hjerpe, LHP, Oregon State: 63%

• 2021 — Ryan Cusick, RHP, Wake Forest: 63%

• 2021 — Jack Leiter, RHP, Vanderbilt: 62%

• 2021 — Gunnar Hoglund, RHP, Ole Miss: 59%

• 2024 — Jurrangelo Cjintje, BHP, Mississippi State: 58%

• 2024 — Ben Hess, RHP, Alabama: 58%

• 2021 — Jordan Wicks, LHP, Kansas State: 55%

• 2024 — Hagen Smith, LHP, Arkansas: 54%

• 2021 — Michael McGreevy, RHP, UC Santa Barbara: 54%

• 2022 — Gabriel Hughes, RHP, Gonzaga: 53%

• 2024 — Trey Yesavage, RHP, East Carolina: 52%

• 2022 — Cade Horton, RHP, Oklahoma: 52%

• 2021 — Kumar Rocker, RHP, Vanderbilt: 51%

• 2021 — Sam Bachman, RHP, Miami (Ohio): 50%

• 2023 — Hurston Waldrep, RHP, Florida: 47%

• 2024 — Chase Burns, RHP, Wake Forest: 45%

• 2023 — Rhett Lowder, RHP, Wake Forest: 39%

Unsurprisingly, each pitcher’s primary listed here is their fastball. And no first-round arm since at least 2021 has used their fastball as frequently as Doyle has in their draft year. His usage was even higher through his first four non-conference starts (78%) but he has dipped into his bag of secondaries a bit more frequently in his last two turns in the SEC.

If he keeps this pace he'll have one of the most extreme single-pitch profiles we've seen in recent years. Which if nothing else makes him an extremely interesting prospect and player development case study. The highest fastball usage among qualified major league pitchers since 2021 is Justin Steele’s 2023 season when he threw his heater 64.4% of the time.

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Since it's been so long since my last newsletter, I'll just leave a list of the writing and podcasting I've done in that time.

Writing

• Mock Draft V 1.0

• The MLB Draft Order Is Quite Simple, Actually

• Expectations For 2024 First Round Picks In 2025

• Scouting Buzz On 20 College Pitchers In The Class

• Hitting Notes On The Top 100 College Bats In The Class

• In-Depth Reports On Four Helium College Bats

Podcasting

• Draft Podcast Debating Jamie Arnold vs. Tyler Bremner and Jace Laviolette Losing 1-1 Case

• Draft Podcast focused on Gavin Kilen and Joseph Dzierwa

• Future Projection Episode 116: Yankees Prospect Buzz & Scouting The Dominican Republic

• A mock draft podcast & video with JJ Cooper

• A draft podcast with Peter Flaherty going through the first mock draft of the year:

• Future Projection Episode 117: Red Sox Expectations, Vladdy & $500 Million & First Round Draft Questions

• A draft podcast with Peter Flaherty talking through up-arrow preps and a pair of SEC lefthanders

• Future Projection Episode 118: Scouting the Scouts

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If your attention span is truly cooked, we are still putting out a ton of content on the Baseball America YouTube channel. Basically every day at this point.

I’d also strongly recommend checking out this great piece from Jacob Rudner on an inside look at Tennessee transfer Alberto Osuna’s NCAA eligibility battle.

That’s it for today. Thanks for following along and reading. Hope you all have a great weekend.

1. Wow, I am getting old.