Revisiting Draft Reports For Boston's Big Three

"Anthony looks the part of a developing young slugger."

Last Monday the Red Sox finally promoted Roman Anthony and gave us this beauty of a lineup:

1. Jarren Duran, LF

2. Rafael Devers, DH

3. Abraham Toro, 1B

4. Trevor Story, SS

5. Roman Anthony, RF

6. Kristian Campbell, 2B

7. Marcelo Mayer, 3B

8. Ceddanne Rafaela, CF

9. Connor Wong, C

We’ve been waiting to see Anthony, Marcelo Mayer and Kristian Campbell in the same major league lineup for what seems like forever now. While I still would love to see Mayer slide over to shortstop and see Campbell play somewhere not in the infield, it was a fun culmination of one of the more dynamic prospect trios from a single team we’ve seen in years.

All three players are still settling in and figuring things out,¹ but should form the core of a strong young Red Sox lineup for a long time. Now that they’re all in the majors, I thought it would be fun to look back at their draft rankings and reports.

We’ll go in order of draft stock (which also happens to be chronological):

Marcelo Mayer, SS, Eastlake High, Chula Vista, Calif.
Rank: 2
Drafted: 2021 1st round, 4th overall ($6,664,000)

Mayer is the next big prospect to come out of a powerhouse Eastlake (Calif.) High program that produced Adrian Gonzalez, 2019 first-round pick Keoni Cavaco and 2020 second-rounder Casey Schmitt (by way of San Diego State). Mayer started getting attention from scouts at Eastlake as a freshman, where he showed a smooth lefthanded swing and advanced defensive actions up the middle. He capped his four-year varsity career by hitting .410 with 13 home runs in the regular season this spring while playing excellent high school competition in San Diego County’s top division. Mayer is arguably the top defensive shortstop in a class that is deep at the position. He glides around the infield with silky smooth actions and has the hands, footwork and arm strength to stick at shortstop long term. He slows the game down and has no problem throwing from multiple angles with an accurate arm. Though he is a below-average runner, he moves fluidly around the dirt and should be at least an above-average defender. The 6-foot-3, 185-pound Mayer also has upside offensively. He’s a plus hitter with excellent barrel control and extension in his swing and drives balls hard in the air from gap-to-gap. He can turn on good fastballs and drive them off the right-field fence or let pitches on the outer half travel deep and line them hard up the middle or the opposite way. He has fringe-average power now, but could tap into above-average power in the future as he fills out his projectable frame. He controls the strike zone and has a calm, steady presence in the batter’s box. Mayer is committed to Southern California, but as a surefire top-five pick, it’s unlikely he ever steps foot on campus. He has a chance to be taken with the top pick and join Gonzalez, who was selected first overall in 2000, in making Eastlake the only high school to ever have two players drafted No. 1 overall.

I think this report holds up pretty well. The player Mayer was billed to be as a standout high school shortstop in Southern California is largely the player he remains today. As we continued covering Mayer throughout his minor league career, his skills on the field and toolset reflected our expectations for him as an amateur.

The one tool he lacks is speed, and that was always the case. I’d still like to see him get a chance to prove his defensive chops at shortstop in the majors, because I think his instincts, glovework and athleticism are all good fits for the position.

On draft day in 2021, we had no strong feeling as to who would be the first overall pick. It was a muddled group and Mayer had as strong a case as anyone. He ranked second on our board behind only Jordan Lawlar. Each of the top five prospects in that class had a compelling case to go first overall: Lawlar, Mayer, Jack Leiter, Henry Davis and Kumar Rocker.

In hindsight Mayer would be the clear pick to go first overall of that group, though Jackson Jobe (who we ranked 8th and went second overall) would have a strong case as well if we wanted to expand the player pool.

Roman Anthony, OF, Stoneman Douglass High, Parkland, Fla.
Rank: 72
Drafted: 2022 2nd round, 79th overall ($2,500,000)

Hailing from the same Southern Florida powerhouse that also produced Anthony Rizzo, Jesus Luzardo and, more recently, Coby Mayo, Anthony is the latest top prospect to come out of the program and he brings a powerful lefthanded bat with him. Listed at 6-foot-3, 190 pounds, Anthony looks the part of a developing young slugger with wide shoulders and present strength that shows up in the form of massive, 400-plus foot home runs. His raw power is easily plus, and when he catches a pitch on the barrel, there are few players in the class who can send a baseball as far as he can. However, Anthony struggled with swing-and-miss issues over the showcase circuit, which raised questions about his pure hitting ability. He made more contact this spring as the three-hole hitter for one of the best high school teams in the country, and he led all hitters with seven hits at USA Baseball’s National High School Invitational. A center fielder now, Anthony likely moves to a corner outfield position in the future, but he moves well underway and is a savvy and aggressive baserunner currently. He is committed to Mississippi.

The first time I saw Roman Anthony play was at the 2021 high school all-star game in Coors Field. He struck out in each of his first three plate appearances and looked reasonably lost at the plate. Then in his fourth at-bat he went down in the zone and yanked a ball 450 feet to the pull side.² It remains one of the most impressive home runs I’ve seen from a high school hitter.

Still, I left that game thinking Anthony was a boom-or-bust hitter with a ton of raw power but less pure hitting ability. He continued to struggle with miss tendencies throughout the summer circuit.

In the spring scouts talked about how he’d done a nice job improving his contact skills. I even saw these improved contact skills on display at USA Baseball’s National High School Invitational in 2022, when he led all batters in hits. I also remember being less impressed with that showing because I felt like a lot of his balls were off the cap, weakly hit or flared into the outfield.

In hindsight all of his improvement was a sign of things to come, and almost immediately after entering pro ball, Anthony’s contact skills seemed to stick—and come with that same easy power that has always been on display. While it seems like we had him ranked reasonably appropriately on draft day, this is probably a good reminder of not getting too anchored into an initial view of a player. And be open-minded to shifting your idea of a hitter’s skill, especially when that hitter is an athlete like Anthony.

Kristian Campbell, 2B/OF, Georgia Tech
Rank: 255
Drafted: 2023 4th round, 132nd overall ($492,700)

After not playing during his true freshman season at Georgia Tech, Campbell tore up the Northwoods League in 2022. He hit .356 with 10 doubles, three triples, two home runs, 45 RBIs and 31 stolen bases across 58 games. While the 6-foot-3 infielder missed some time at the beginning of this season, he hit at a high level through 45 games and slashed .376/.484/.549 with four home runs, 16 doubles and a strong 13.4% walk rate to 7.8% strikeout rate. Campbell’s calling card is his elite contact rate. He posted a 90% overall contact rate this spring with a tremendous in-zone contact rate of 94%. Campbell crowds the plate and hits against a slightly closed off front side. He has plus hand speed that allows him to turn on pitches that sometimes look like they might hit him, and sprays the ball all over the yard. He is a plus runner and while it is yet to be seen where he fits best defensively, whether that be on the dirt or in the outfield, his profile is a bit similar to Georgia Tech’s 2022 slash-and-dash specialist Chandler Simpson. Campbell isn’t quite the runner Simpson is, and his power ceiling is certainly higher given his wiry frame, but he has some of the same defensive questions as Simpson did. Regardless, Campbell’s speed will help him succeed in an outfield spot if that is where an organization decides to use him. While Simpson went late in day one in 2022, Campbell should hear his name called somewhere in the middle of day two in 2023.

Whoof.

I think we’d all like this one back. Campbell did go on day two in the draft, but it was closer to the early part of day two than the middle, and it was also 100 spots better than our ranking. The draft board isn’t meant to line up 1:1 with draft selection just given the dynamics of how players are picked and paid, but still—far too low.

I guess no one could have predicted his transformation in 2024, when he was the Baseball America Minor League Player of the Year after not ranking on Boston’s preseason Top 30. His rise as a prospect is one of the most significant we’ve seen since the Prospect Handbook started in 2001.

The foundation to build on was there in college. His contact skills were obvious, and we also highlighted hand speed and some physical projection that could have hinted at more power upside in the future. His actual jump in raw power is multiple grades better than what I would have expected in just two years.

I’m guessing a lot of lean, contact-oriented hitters are going to get the Campbell “what if” comparison moving forward, but not every college contact merchant will be able to make the changes he did so easily.

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Boston’s scouting and player development (and the players themselves) deserve a lot of credit here. That’s a heck of a three-year run. Maybe Brandon Clarke will be their 2024 steal.

Let me know if anything jumps out to you when looking at these reports.

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Below is the work I’ve produced for Baseball America since my last newsletter:

Writing

• 2025 MLB Mock Draft 4.0. It’s always surprising how well the mock drafts do with traffic and general interest. Consider this: Ben Badler knows for a fact where all the top international prospects are signing before signing day. The lack of uncertainty there seems to take all of the hype out of the exercise. People love drama, I suppose. I will not complain.

• Which Top MLB Draft Prospects Improved Their Stock The Most This Season? This is the eighth edition of our “to-do list” series. It’s become a staple of my draft coverage each year and it’s always fun to look back and see who accomplished what or who moved up or down because of something entirely separate from what I chose to ID at the beginning of the season.

• MLB Draft Chat With Carlos Collazo (6/11/25). I know we’re getting closer to draft day because we had more than 50 really good questions in this draft chat.

Podcasting/Video

• Future Projection Episode 128: The 2025 International Prospects You Need To Know. Ben gives you all the names you need to know about as we’re starting to see some early returns from the 2025 IFA class.

• Future Projection Episode 129: Scouting The 2026 + 2027 HS Class, MLB Promotions & Pitching Timelines. I thought our conversation about the pitching timelines for elite high school arms was instructive.

• Draft Pod: The 2025 Super Regionals Are Loaded With Draft Prospects. Yeah, this one does seem a bit dated right now. But we did have a loaded field in the supers!

• Draft Pod: Mock Draft 4.0: Uncertainty, Helium Names & Pool vs. Pick Capital. Peter picks my brain on the mock draft, plus we got sucked into a really interesting conversation about pick capital vs. pool capital. I’m still going back and forth on what my preference would be here.

• Hot Sheet: Brody Hopkins joins, Mock Draft 4.0, Roman Anthony promoted. I had a semi-regular appearance on this week’s hot sheet show.

• Destination: The Show. Episode 81: 2025 MLB Draft Preview With Carlos Collazo. I also was a guest on the Destination: The Show podcast, and these guys always do a great job coming prepped on the draft with insightful questions on a ton of players. We also had a rapid fire round where I had to pick one of two players and give a 10-second rationale.

1. Roman Anthony through 5 games: .063/.167/.125, -21 wRC+, 22.2 K%, 11.1 BB%
Kristian Campbell through 63 games: .227/.324/.355, 90 wRC+, 26.9 K%, 11.1 BB%
Marcelo Mayer through 17 games: .229/.283/.479, 103 wRC+, 30.2 K%, 7.5 BB%

2. Fun fact, if you check out this video you can see JJ Cooper and myself watching this game in the first row behind the plate.